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1. update and NEW CONCLUSION

Blogpost 23.09.2008

 

 

A) forecast on EVs

269 EVs for Obama (DP) = 50 %

42 EVs are too close to decide = 7,8%

227 EVs for McCain (RP) = 42,2%

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270


B) interesting states ("swing states") on 23.09.2008

The Washington Post defined swing states for the 2004 election as those that were decided by less than three percentage points in the 2000 presidential election.

  • Colorado: "DP: 3,4% more"; no longer "too close to decide" => gets "barely DP"=> 9 EVs for Obama
  • Florida: "RP: 3,1% more"; gets "barely RP" but is still very close => 27 EVs for McCain
  • Michigan: "DP: 4,4% more"; no longer "too close to decide" => gets "barely DP" => 17 EVs for Obama
  • Minnesota: "DP: 7,5% more"; gets "weak DP"
  • New Hampshire: "DP: 2,25% more"; gets "too close to decide" => swing state
  • Nevada: "RP: 1% more" => still "too close to decide" = > swing state
  • New Mexiko: had bad polls; "DP: 7,42 % more" => "weak DP" = > 5 EVs for Obama
  • North Dakota: "RP: 6,7 % more"; no longer "too close to decide" = > gets "barely RP" => 3 EVs for McCain
  • Ohio: "RP: 0,8% more" => still "too close to decide" => swing state
  • Pennsylvania: "DP: 4,6% more"; is still "barely DP"
  • Virginia: "RP: 1,3% more"; is still "too close to decide" => swing state

 

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